Posts Tagged ‘Business’
Beware of Global Crisis Phase II
Many are predicting the year 2010 was a year of recovery of the global economic crisis. But not a few who still put up cautious attitude continued even predicted the coming crisis of global crisis stage two aliases.
Before going further, let’s rewind a little to recall the conditions that occurred in past crises 2007-2008. Is an innovative product called the Subprime Mortgage who becomes the main cause.
Subprime is a loan (mortgage) at high risk are offered with attractive option, at least look like it. In the first year, Sub prime borrowers are not charged interest. The new interest rate charged after the first year.
This product is an attractive choice for lower-class communities in the United States (U.S.), because it makes them have the opportunity to have their own home. So many devotees, named Subprime mortgage bonds are also traded in capital markets with a variety of derivatives innovation.
Almost all major banks in the U.S. and Europe to invest in this product. Subprime product value is unsparing reached U.S. $ 1.5 trillion.
But unexpectedly, so the first year passed, the surprise came. Subprime customers apparently many are not able to repay the following principal interest has begun to wear after a year. As a result, major banks in the U.S. and Europe haunted by failure to pay is not absurdly responsibility.
Not only the U.S. and Europe, the impact is felt almost the entire world economy and capital markets, including Indonesia. A total of 123 banks in the U.S. was finally registered bankruptcy. Stock market indices around the world also experienced a sharp correction in the top 50% in just one year.
Fortunately, in 2009 the positive sentiment and spirit of optimism to lift back the indices of global stock markets from collapse. And in 2010, with the same spirit, it is hoped will be a year of recovery.
Unfortunately, the road of recovery and restructuring is unlikely to pass easily and smoothly. According to VP of Research & Analys PT Valbury Asia Securities Nico Omer Jonckheere, the world still has to go through two stages of the global crisis.
“The recession may have ended, but the depression was beginning. The real crisis is still ahead of us,” he said in a talk with detikFinance some time ago.
According to him, most people are too happy with the euphoria of the recovery in 2009, so missed seeing the signs of the crisis continued. Nico explains, Subprime Mortgage may have passed. However, he asserted, Subprime Mortgage is not the only high-risk mortgage products in the U.S..
Products mentioned Nico is mortgage product called Alt-A and Option ARM. Both products are often known as Ninja loans (No Income, No Job and Assets), which means mortgages for people who have no income, employment and collateral.
The difference with the Alt-A Subprime and Option ARM gives customers the flexibility to pay the mortgage during the first 5 years. After 5 years will be subject to periodic adjustment of rates.
“After 5 years, the average increase in interest rates reached 80%,” he said.
According to him, this product is also a time bomb that could be judged to have an impact even greater than Subprime. If the value of Subprime was only U.S. $ 1.5 trillion, the Alt-A and Option ARM respectively to reach U.S. $ 2.5 trillion and U.S. $ 500 billion. The total value of these two products reached U.S. $ 3 trillion.
“So the property market looks stable now, just waiting for the time of adjustment of mortgage rates that will begin this year (2010-2011),” he said.
If Subprime worth U.S. $ 1.5 trillion alone makes the world in shambles, you can imagine what would happen if it turns out customers products and Alt-A Option ARM also could not repay the interest after the adjustment of interest will occur mid-year 2010.
In addition, Nico also saw commercial property loans already showing signs of collapse. For the record, the value of commercial real estate loans in the U.S. reached U.S. $ 3.5 trillion.
“Commercial property prices fell by more than 34% during 2009. Customers who fail to pay the mortgage increased from 1% to 9%. The value of default rose 423% to U.S. $ 52.7 billion from the year 2008 amounted to U.S. $ 12.5 billion,” Nico said.
The volume of commercial property transactions, continued Nico, a sharp decrease of the amount of U.S. $ 133.2 billion in 2007 to U.S. $ 4.8 billion in the first quarter of 2009.
“About 90 thousand in the U.S. commercial property is currently not occupied, empty,” said Nico.
In addition, added Nico, more than 2,600 banks in the U.S. has a portfolio of commercial property loans above 300% of specified risk limits (risk based capital).
“Therefore, hundreds of small and medium-sized banks in the U.S. who have provided loans for commercial property must prepare to face the huge losses that may inundate their resources,” he said.
Nico also said that during the year 2009, banks worldwide have been doing the bleaching of debt worth U.S. $ 1 trillion due to the increased defaults. He estimates, the bleaching of debt that will be the world’s banks during the year 2010 will reach U.S. $ 1.5 trillion.
“In mid 2010, the losses at U.S. banks will exceed the great depression of 1929,” he said.
U.S. job market is also assessed Nico potentially increased sharply up to the level of 13%. According to him, the current condition of U.S. society is very bad.
“1 of 9 Americans, or about 39 million people, depend on the Food Stamp (food stamps) are provided by the federal government,” he said.
If you have this, he added, economic conditions will certainly mendek. Without a new job then there is no income. Without income, there is no purchase of goods and services. Without the purchase, corporate profits will not increase. And finally there are no new job creation.
Severity of the current global economic conditions, according to Nico because the economic system has driven debt is too big, so it stuck on the condition of excess debt.
Based on IMF data as disclosed Nico, the debt of countries that are members of the G20 forum expected to rise on average to a level of 118.4% of the total GDP of its member countries in 2014.
“The main problem of the world economy is now no shortage of money, but the excess debt. The main problem the U.S. economy is still recovering property market, soaring government debt, high unemployment, the credit is not flowing,” he explained.
Nico also predicts the appearance of disappointing economic indicators of developed countries. Then would appear the company reports an increase in net income that is not supported by increased sales.
That means more profit improvement driven by efficiency rather than by increased demand in the market. Purchasing power has not increased. In addition, the price to earnings ratio (PER) of stocks in the U.S. have reached 26 times, a level considered too high Nico.
Over a number of his analysis, he urged market participants more cautious in making investment measures. Because, if the depression does occur, the stock indices around the world will again fall.
“Dow Jones will penetrate the lowest level in past crises at the level of 6469.95. It falls within the range of 3800-5000. JCI could fall back below 2,000 and even below 1,000,” he said.
Nevertheless, market participants suggest Nico made a sale of at least 50% of the portfolio shares into cash. Because cash is required to make purchases when stock prices were collapsing.
“In addition to securing funding, if the market falls, it could make purchases when prices are cheap. You did not earn the maximum profit potential, but you also will not feel hurt,” he said.
“And, keep in mind that every crisis or danger in the fact offer many opportunities. Now the international stock valuations are still expensive, but after the next crash will most likely all of the shares can be purchased at the price it is tempting,
Managing Bank Loans with Good
Managing Bank Loans with Good
Bijaklah in utilizing credit facilities from banks. It would be more balk if the use of bank loans for business development, not to be a start-up capital. Regardless of what type of loan like unsecured credit, and so on.
According Irdawati, Woods Scortha owners who sell a variety of Teak wood furniture products, use of bank credit would be more helpful in developing the business. “Because we already know the pros and cons of our efforts, so the size of the loan and the mortgage is paid can be measured.” he said.
It is done when it gets an offer Irdawati credit from Bank DKI first Rp 50 million in 2005. That’s when he needs capital to open a branch and the Bank DKI provides ease in lending and financial management training program.
The result, Irdawati business forward. He then expanded his business by re-borrowing from the Bank’s capital Jakarta is Rp 200 million, three years later.
“My business is fast forward and get the ease of borrowing again for not having a problem in paying the installments. That’s because I already feel the Uku-llku become big business until then. Once expanded, all so much easier. I have strong financial management . “he said.
Unlike when using capital as loans without collateral from the bank in a pioneering effort, lrdawatl cautioned. If financial management is weak, it will make the effort collapsed and difficult to pay the mortgage loan. It would be more balk if the pioneering efforts using their own capital. It can reduce the risk.
Other messages, for a pioneering new venture. Do not ever give up during their process. Focus on what the business field and has always believed that the goods sold are the best.
Employee Productivity to Provide Satisfaction
states that “promotion opportunities lead to different effects on job satisfaction because of differences in remuneration as given”. According Nitisemito (2000: 81) promotion is the “process of moving employees from one position to another position in a higher”. Thus, the promotion will always be followed by the duties, responsibilities, and authority higher than the position previously occupied. Through the promotion, the company will gain stability and moral karyawanpun to be more secure. While Robbins (2001:150) states that the promotion will provide an opportunity for personal growth, more responsibility, and increased social status. When promotions are made in a fair manner are expected to provide satisfaction to employees.
Supervision (Supervision)
Luthans (1998:145) argues that the task of supervision can not be separated with the function of leadership, which affect the business activities of subordinates through a process of communication to achieve specific objectives set out the organization. According to Hasibuan (2001:169), leadership is defined by a manager in an organization can create a harmonious integration and encourages employees’ passion for achieving maximum objectives. Therefore the activities of employees in the company depends on the leadership style that is applied as well as the environmental situation in the companies they work for. The need for guidance, attention and motivation of the leaders expected to spur employees to do their job well, as proposed by Hasibuan (2001:170) that leadership style is essentially aims to promote morale, job satisfaction, and employee productivity is high, so can achieve maximum organization
Size Performance
size Performance
There are three kinds of measures that can be used to quantitatively measure the performance namely:
a. The size of a single criterion
The size of a single criterion (single criteria) is a measure of performance that only use one measure to assess the performance of managers. Weakness when the single criterion used to measure the performance of people will tend to concentrate its efforts on the criteria in the business so that the result of other criteria are ignored, the
likely have the same meaning as important in determining the success or failure of the company.
b. Size range criteria
Size range criteria (multiple criteria) is a measure of performance using various measures to assess the criteria manager. These criteria seek various aspects of the performance of managers, so managers can measure performance of a variety of criteria. The goal is to make use of the various managers who measured its performance lead to different performance.
c. The size of the combined criteria
The size of the combined criteria (composite criteria) is a measure of performance using a variety of sizes, to take into account the weight of each measure and calculate rationality as a measure of the overall performance of managers. Combined criteria is done because the company realized that some goals is more important than other goals, so that some companies give weight to certain numbers on a variety of criteria to obtain a single measure of performance of managers.
Performance Measurement
Performance measurement is an analysis of data and control for the company. Performance measurement used by companies to make improvements on their operations in order to compete with other companies. For investor information about the company’s performance can be used to see whether they will maintain their investment in the company or find other alternatives. In addition measurements were also performed to demonstrate to investors and customers or society in general that the company has a good creditability (Munawir, 1995: 85)
Performance measurement is defined as “performing measurement” (performance measurement) are the qualifications and efficiency of the company or segment or effectiveness in the operation of business during the accounting period. Thus the notion of performance is a formal business enterprise carried out to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of corporate activity that has been implemented in the period of time
certain (Hanafi, 2003: 69). In his book, Halim (2003: 17), entitled “Investment Analysis” mentions that the basic idea of this fundamental approach is that stock prices are influenced by the performance of the company. If the company’s performance is good then the business will be high. With high business value to the company’s investors look to invest their money so that it will increase the stock price. Conversely, if there is bad news about the company’s performance, it will cause the stock price declines at the company. Or it can be said that the stock price is a function of firm value.
There are Three Important Dimensions of Job Satisfaction
There are three important dimensions of job satisfaction, namely:
1. job satisfaction is an emotional response to the work situation
2. job satisfaction is defined as how well the results meet expectations
3. job satisfaction present attitude of care or work related.
Smith, et. al. cited Lutherans (1998:145-146) indicate the presence of 6 important factors that affect employee job satisfaction, namely:
1) The Work Itself, the extent to the which the job provides the individual with interesting task, opportunities for learning, and the chance to accept responsibility.
Work itself, the extent of employee sees her job as an interesting work, provide opportunities for learning, and opportunities to accept responsibility.
2) Pay, the amount of financial remuneration That Is received and the degree to the which That Is equitable viewed vis-a-vis That of other in organization.
Wages or salary, an amount of financial remuneration received by the employee and the rate at which it is viewed as a fair thing in the organization.
3) Promotion opportunities, the chance for advancement in the hierarchy.
Opportunity for advancement in career.
4) Supervision, the Abilities of the supervisor to Provide technical assistance and behavioral support.
Supervision, the supervisor the ability to provide technical assistance and provide support.
5) Co-worker, the degree to the which fellow workers are technically Proficient sportive socially.
Colleagues, is a level where co-workers provide support.
6) Working condition, if the are good working condition (clean, attractive, Surrounding, for instance) the Personnel Will find it Easier to Carry out Their job.
Working conditions, if the working conditions of employees good (clean, attractive and pleasant working environment) will make them easy to complete the job.
Factors Can be Explained in Business
These factors can be explained as follows:
1) The Work Itself (The work itself)
According to Lutherans (1998:145), this element describes the views of employees on the job as interesting work, through the work of the employees the opportunity to learn, and gain the opportunity to accept responsibility. According to Robbins (2001:149) “employees tend to prefer jobs that give them the opportunity to use their skills and abilities and offers a variety of tasks, freedom, and feedback on how well they work. …”. The existence of appropriate work skills and abilities of employees expected to encourage employees to produce a good performance.
2) Pay (Salary)
According to Robbins (2001:149) that the employees wanted a system of wage and promotion policies which they perceive as fair, no doubt, and in line with their expectations. When viewed as a fair wage based on job demands, individual skill level, and community wage standards, will likely be generated satisfaction “. The higher the education level of employees, the higher the level the employee is likely to do social comparison with the same comparative employees outside the company. If the salary provided the company with a salary lower than that prevailing in similar companies and have the same type, it will arise against the salary of employee dissatisfaction. Therefore, wages should be determined in such a way that both parties (employee and company) feel equally benefited. Because employees who are satisfied with the salary he received, then it can create job satisfaction is expected to impact on employee performance.
Similarly According Handout (2001: 6), which states that “dissatisfaction as to the amount of compensation of employees is often due to feelings of not being treated fair and reasonable in their payments”. A similar opinion expressed Hasidim (2001: 121) that the remuneration or compensation, the employee will be able to meet physical needs, social status, and egoistical so as to obtain job satisfaction from his post.
Able to Survive
Before the fresh funds in the cash they hurried out to finance all their operations .. Then the business shall immediately obtain new revenue from the sale of product-product that they sell as soon as possible, and certainly in quantities large enough to just cover all their expenditures .. . In order business will not be hurried out of their reserves of fresh funds, which of course would also make it difficult to run their operations.
Meaning .. A newly established business must immediately focus on himself to survive immediate first .. (Survive) as soon as possible to generate sales. Ideally .. Once the business is in the open day .. Later that day business has been able to generate sales ..
And what with the re-organization, staffing .. etc. ..
That can wait for later .. What matters is the last first .. It’ll clean up the problem that the business has managed to survive ..
Because .. if it can not survive .. What that must fix it ..
To be able to survive .. Then the business must have a minimum income equal to expenditures that should he have to cover every month. This means that business as quickly as possible should be able to develop the ability to be able to record the sale as quickly as possible in large enough quantities to make it stand strong enough and fresh enough to hoard a lot of money to be able to make enough energy to enter the next phase .. Namely GROW / GROW .. !
The greater the number of sales they can get. The more healthy and grow many fresh funds which they can store up as food reserves needed to grow the business later.
Well .. Therein lies the problem …
Business had just stood up .. generally do not have personnel experienced and reliable enough to sell .. Especially if they are dealing with product-product that is not much needed by the market .. Then they will soon enter the deadly trap that will make them hard to earn ..
Because according to my observation, very few business people who sell the product-product exclussive who managed to survive in the early days of their business, compared with the number of businesses that fail (80% fail .. and only 20% are successful .. Michael E. Gerber ).
If this rate is how dong .. Experienced many years in sales it is still problematic in getting the sales figures are high enough let alone who are beginners .. A newly established business it yesterday afternoon?
Well for that you should understand the following raw sense ..
Business is a simple game to make your money grow and grow all the time, the road to meet market needs better than could be done by your competitors.
Any need or problem being faced by the market .. So that’s where your best opportunities to make your money grow and grow …
A successful business, is a business that has high sales figures, while the business is failing, is the business that have a low sales figures.
How was the continued high sales would have if the new company does not have a high ability of salesmanship?
Easy .. You should start with product-products that are needed by the market in large enough quantities. This is because, product-products that fall into this category .. Always have a tendency not require special skills to sell it to market.
Business Just A Simple Game To Play
Business Just A Simple Game To Play
And you can believe it should not .. Business just A Simple Game To Play .. do not take a genius to successfully play and win .. And almost all the most essential things in a successful business .. I actually have The obvious answer is in chapter 3 on (all of them there are 23 chapters) of my book “Start Up Business Wizards” was published in October 2009. But to assist you in understanding how to make a business with a 98% chance of success, in a nutshell .. (Learn more could you see in the Start Up Business Wizards are also prizes directly in the form of Audio Book voucher valued at Rp 180.000 and spending millions of dollars).
There is one of the most fundamental understanding that you have mastered the business Metamorphose …
Metamorphose # 1:
A new business must stand first in the beginning he stood .. (Survive)
Metamorphose # 2:
Once the business is able to survive .. Then she’ll be ready to start growing .. (GROW)
Metamorphose # 3:
Once the business is managed to grow .. So he is ready to duplicate its growth could then lead the standings for the competition in its field .. (LEAD)
I mention this metamoprhose with SGL – Survive, Grow & Lead. (Survive, Grow and Lead ..)
How was the continued implementation …? We begin the discussion with Metamorphose early stage is very valuable to start a business. Bonus for Rp 180,000, – this will be yours for every purchase of the book Start Up Business Wizards.
Business start-up .. still very fragile .. Like a butterfly, this business has just hatched .. and still in the form of small larvae and enter the stage of learning to find food. For newly hatched larvae of this, the only defense of his life is just a backup agent remaining egg white in his body is fat .. as a backup food left .. In business start-up .. These food reserves in the form of fresh funds remaining after spent all sorts of purposes for the business is to stand.
For butterfly larvae newly hatched, food reserves will be used every day to support the move Before the fat in the body runs out .. the newly hatched tiny caterpillars must immediately find ways to survive by looking for anything around it that can eat .. In this case the leaf or fruit that he can consume and not harmful to the body .. The sooner he finds food he could get to easily, in sufficient quantities and not harmful to the body, then as soon as it was also he could survive ..
Instead .. the slower he gets his food, then the reserves of fat inside their bodies will soon be exhausted and will ultimately undermine the durability of these caterpillars. And if this condition occurs protracted .. then it is certain that these worms can not survive and eventually get sick and die ..
Financial Strategy for New Business
Be careful with fresh money you have. Once he was out of cash your business. You can never predict when he’ll return.
Even the opportunities that look very nice though. In fact it is not easy to get it. “
As we discussed earlier, that all business start-up at all do not have enough income from their sales. As a new player, they do not have customers in sufficient quantities, which can guarantee a regular income for them in large numbers. Likewise with your new business.
In conditions like these are still very critical, a new business you will need a reserve fund in a very large number. Even bigger than you ever planned before.
When you start a business, here would be Murphy’s Law applies. That everything that has your forecast and plan. Everything will take 2 to 3 times longer to be in reach. Likewise with the funding requirements in make it happen .. You would need 2 to 3 times more than you ever forecast and plan ahead.
Therefore, it is not wise if you spend new funds you have on your business inception. It is precisely in order not to make the money grow. But it is allocated to inventory holdings company that has nothing to do with selling such an expensive office rental, office furniture of luxury, service vehicles that have not really needed. Vehicle facilities for employees and all other expenses that have nothing to do directly with sales.
Typically, in starting a business. You use your savings or savings of the people close to you like a family or a loan from your peers.
They have taken the risk to lose their savings to lend their money to your new business. A new effort is still very risky to fail. A new venture in which the Bank was not willing to finance it.
As I mentioned earlier. Banks would only lend to a new business after seeing the ability of the business, in record sales during the first 6 to 12 months the business stands. And not when the new venture will stand.
Therefore, you must realize how very precious fresh funds in your hands right now to start a business. Loss of these funds, but will destroy your reputation and life, are also potentially damaging to your relationships with people you love.
Therefore, one of the most important tasks you as the owner of a startup business is, keeping your business fresh funds are very tight and be careful in spending it.
According to Brian Tracy, fresh money is the life blood of life for a business. If the business you run out of fresh funds into reserves, then the business is quickly coming to an end.
The core game of financial management activities of a business is. How to make all expenditures will always result in measurable revenue. Required payments strategy and allocation of funds to create new funds in a business continues to grow. And another great, not all marketing efforts costly. In fact, many efforts are very effective even with almost no cost.