Our models show that even a heavily indebted economy in theory for years, if not decades, to keep afloat before the crash and the collapse comes. In the end, all boils down to confidence and the coordination of expectations, again depending on the vagaries of human nature. We can therefore say which countries are most vulnerable, but we can not determine exactly where and when the crisis breaks out next.
It’s the same with the prediction of a heart attack. An obese person with high blood pressure and high cholesterol levels have a statistically higher chance of suffering a severe heart attack or stroke than people that do not have these risk factors. But often it can take decades without the exposed person has a problem. At the same time there are people that take an apparently “low risk”, but nevertheless are vulnerable to heart attacks.

Anyway: The reason why most investors currently place much more confidence on the day as it did a few months is that governments around the world stretched under large parts of the financial system have an extensive safety net. At the same time you have driven by the accumulation of massive deficits, the economy and the central banks have lowered interest rates to nearly zero.
But is all-embracing state generosity be the last word? Public protection work, because you can reach deep into the taxpayers pocket, but each bag is eventually cleared. And if states – particularly large fall – are in trouble, then there is no protection. After the national debt reached around the world values, the only known after wars, it is obvious that this strategy is not sustainable.
If the now is so, the question arises as to how long you can accumulate debt. We do not know. Scientific working economists have developed practical tools to predict which economies are most vulnerable to a financial crisis. But although we can identify risk factors, a timing is virtually impossible.

From the Queen of England to the auto industry laid off workers in Detroit is wondering why many experts, the financial crisis have not seen coming. This is an awkward question. How can policy makers be so sure that the financial disaster will not return again soon when they obviously had no idea that such a crisis would occur at all ever?
The answer is not very reassuring. Basically, there is still a risk that the financial crisis has fallen only in the winter and then morphs into a state debt crisis.

The international management of investment funds Fidelity has recently conducted a study on the current status of investors throughout Europe. In collaboration with the consulting firm TNS Sofres, conducted a survey in eleven European countries and consulted to some nine thousand investors and savers of different branches to get their opinion on some important points about their role in the financial market.